Inside the Combine: A Midwest Farmer’s Truth About Harvest, Markets & Survival in 2025
In the middle of a harvest that feels more like a sprint than a marathon, I had the chance to reconnect with returning guest Matt Perreault. From his combine cab, Matt gave us a raw, real-time account of what it’s actually like to be a corn and soybean farmer in 2025—and folks, the truth isn’t easy to hear.
This isn’t your polished, ag-tech brochure version of modern farming. This is what happens when input costs explode, global buyers disappear, and government support feels more like a patch than a plan. But it’s also a story of grit, optimism, and a relentless pursuit to keep America’s food engine running.
Harvest 2025: “We’ve Had Two Days Off Since September”
Matt kicks things off by painting the scene. “We started the third week of September and we’ve basically been going nonstop,” he says. The corn harvest in Illinois this year is smooth from a weather standpoint, but relentless in pace.
Unlike previous years where rain delays spread the harvest season out, this year’s dry fall has turned it into a logistical and physical grind. But the reward? A surprisingly strong yield—though as we find out quickly, high yields don’t always mean high profits.
High Yields, Low Profits: When Good Crops Don’t Pay the Bills
Despite pulling in one of the better crops in recent memory, Matt shares a sobering reality:
“Soybean prices are around $10 a bushel here, but for a lot of farmers, the cost of production is closer to $10.75 or even $11. That’s a built-in loss.”
This math isn't unique to Matt’s operation. Many U.S. farmers are in the same boat—thanks in part to ballooning costs for seed, fertilizer, and equipment, plus declining market prices caused by global trade disruptions.
The China Problem (and the Argentina Curveball)
A big chunk of the podcast conversation centers around China’s retreat from buying U.S. soybeans, a move largely tied to ongoing trade tensions and tariffs.
“China used to buy about 60% of the U.S. soybean crop,” I note during the show. “Now, they’re buying almost exclusively from Brazil and, more recently, Argentina.”
Matt adds an infuriating twist: Just as American farmers were hoping for a sales bump, the U.S. struck a $20 billion currency deal with Argentina, helping stabilize their economy. What happened next? Argentina dropped its soybean export taxes—and China swooped in to buy huge volumes of beans. The window slammed shut on U.S. farmers… again.
No Room to Pivot: Why “Just Grow Something Else” Isn’t the Answer
Some might ask: why not switch crops?
Matt answers that question directly. “Corn is more expensive to grow than soybeans, but neither are very profitable right now. And planting alternative crops like rice or cotton isn’t viable for most Midwest farmers. We simply don’t have the infrastructure or climate for it.”
In fact, many farmers are considering planting soybeans on soybeans, which is generally avoided due to disease pressure and yield drag—a testament to how few options they have.
The Banking Crunch: “I Don’t Know What to Tell My Lender”
Perhaps the most sobering part of the discussion is the growing fear around access to credit.
With corn and soybean prices low and costs high, some farmers will head into winter with red ink on their balance sheets. Operating loans—used to buy seed and fertilizer for next season—are now harder to justify, especially with interest rates hovering around 7%.
“There are guys that are going to sit down with their lenders this winter and not be able to explain how they’ll make money next year,” Matt says.
It’s not hyperbole. It’s the reality for thousands of operations.
“We Don’t Want Aid. We Want Trade.”
Aid packages may be coming, but Matt makes it clear where most farmers stand:
“We want consistent buyers for the product we’re growing. Let supply and demand do what it’s supposed to do. Nobody wants a bailout.”
At the same time, targeted assistance—like covering rising input costs or helping smaller operations keep the lights on—might be the only short-term lifeline. But if we’re serious about long-term stability, policy has to shift toward strengthening markets, not just cushioning losses.
What Gives Us Hope: Biofuels, Carbon, and Smart Trade
We wrapped our conversation by shifting to solutions. Here's what Matt and I are both optimistic about:
1. Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)
Programs that convert corn and soybeans into cleaner jet fuel could be a game-changer. SAF can create new, reliable demand without depending on volatile global buyers.
2. Carbon Credit Markets
Matt’s already involved in cover cropping and reduced tillage programs, but carbon sequestration credits offer a next-level opportunity—if the government can standardize and support it.
3. Better Trade Agreements
Forget bailouts. What American farmers need are fair, long-term, reliable trade partners, especially in Asia. Trade deals > aid packages.
Final Word: This Is Bigger Than Just Farmers
Farming isn’t just a lifestyle—it’s a business. A low-margin, high-capital, high-risk business. And when farmers suffer, it ripples across the entire ag supply chain—from OEMs and ag retailers to rural towns and dinner tables.
The stories of farmers like Matt aren’t just about tractors and grain bins. They’re about the health of the American economy, the security of our food system, and the future of rural communities.
Let’s keep listening—and more importantly, let’s act.
