Agriculture at a Crossroads: Global Competition, New Markets, and Smarter Inputs
Agriculture has always been cyclical.
Boom years are followed by tightening margins. Innovation surges, then consolidation follows. Markets expand, then global competition catches up. But today feels different.
In a recent episode of The Germinate Podcast, Joe Sampson sat down with industry veteran Roger Murdoch to talk about where agriculture stands right now and why the decisions being made today will shape the next decade of the industry.
The conclusion is clear: agriculture is at a crossroads.
Global Production Is No Longer a U.S. Advantage
For decades, the United States held a dominant position in global crop production. Superior hybrids, advanced equipment, and efficient farming practices gave American growers an edge. But the rest of the world has been learning.
Countries like Brazil and Argentina have dramatically increased output. Emerging regions such as Kazakhstan are investing in irrigation, fertilizer systems, and modern agronomic practices. What was once considered a production advantage for the U.S. is now becoming a global standard. As Roger points out, we are not the only ones improving yields. Everyone is.
That reality changes the equation. When global production rises everywhere, supply increases faster than demand. And when that happens, margins tighten. Waiting for the market to “come back” is not a strategy.
The Real Battle Is on Inputs, Not Just Yield
For many growers, the instinct during tough cycles is to chase more bushels. Higher yield feels like the obvious path forward.
But is it?
Roger challenges that mindset. Instead of asking, “How do I grow more?” the better question may be, “How do I earn more per acre?”
Growers cannot control commodity pricing. They can control input costs.
Smarter fertilizer placement, banding instead of broadcasting, and more precise nutrient management can reduce waste while maintaining or improving productivity. The goal shifts from maximizing yield to maximizing return on investment. That shift in thinking is critical in today’s environment. Efficiency is not just a cost-cutting tactic. It is a survival strategy.
Innovation Moves Faster in Smaller Companies
One of the most interesting parts of the conversation centers on shortline manufacturers.
Shortlines often focus on a specific niche. That focus allows them to innovate quickly and bring products to market faster than large multinational corporations with multiple layers of process and approval. In a time when agriculture needs smarter systems and better efficiency tools, nimble companies have a distinct advantage. Larger OEMs often partner with or acquire innovative startups because they recognize the speed at which smaller teams can solve targeted problems. At major international shows like Agritechnica in Germany, those innovations are on full display. It is where global manufacturers search for the next breakthrough.
New Markets Must Be Developed
If global production continues to grow, new demand must be created.
Roger highlights a major opportunity in domestic market development. Ethanol, biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel represent enormous potential outlets for U.S. grain production. Expanding usage beyond traditional export markets could significantly impact long term stability.
Rather than relying solely on international buyers, agriculture may need to invest more heavily in creating internal demand.
This requires leadership, policy alignment, and industry collaboration. But the potential upside is substantial.
Relationships Still Matter
Even in a world of artificial intelligence and digital communication, agriculture remains a relationship business.
Roger’s career reflects decades of building trust across manufacturers, dealers, growers, and global partners. Farm shows, industry associations, and in person conversations still create opportunities that email and online platforms cannot replace.
Agriculture is a small industry. Bridges should not be burned. Knowledge should be shared.
Organizations like the Farm Equipment Manufacturers Association exist to help smaller companies access resources, legal guidance, and peer insight. In a rapidly changing environment, collaboration may be one of the industry’s most underutilized advantages.
The Road Ahead
Agriculture stands at a pivotal moment.
Global competition is stronger. Input costs are under scrutiny. Innovation cycles are accelerating. Markets are shifting.
The path forward will require:
Smarter inputs
Better ROI discipline
Faster innovation
New demand creation
Stronger collaboration
The growers and companies that adapt will not simply survive this cycle. They will position themselves to lead the next one.
Agriculture has always been resilient. The question now is not whether change is coming.
It is whether we are willing to embrace it.
Listen Here