Cattle Shock, Corn Cycles & Rural Optimism: A Conversation with Economist Christopher Pudenz
When cattle pens sit empty on an Iowa farm for the first time in 50 years, you know something serious is happening in American agriculture.
That’s exactly where economist Christopher Pudenz opens this conversation on The Germinate Podcast. His father—a lifelong cattle feeder—will celebrate Christmas without cattle chores for the first time in his adult life. Not because demand is weak. Not because beef prices fell. But because margins simply don’t work.
What follows is one of the clearest breakdowns of today’s cattle and grain markets you’ll hear anywhere—a blend of economics, global perspective, policy analysis, and old-fashioned common sense from someone who understands agriculture both academically and personally.
The Cattle Market Shock: High Prices, Tight Margins, No Easy Answers
Cattle markets have been on a tear, with beef demand up nearly 10% in early 2025 compared to already-strong 2024 levels. Supplies are historically tight, genetics have improved, consumers want more protein, and carcass quality has never been better.
So why are cattle feeders stepping back?
Because shocks hit the industry fast:
The U.S. suddenly dropped the 40% tariff on Brazilian beef, flooding the market with cheaper product.
Shortly after, Tyson Foods announced a major plant closure/downsizing, creating uncertainty in packer capacity.
Live cattle futures reacted almost instantly—days of massive selloffs and limit-down moves.
For many feeders, including Chris’s father, the math no longer adds up. High prices at the sale barn do not guarantee profitability when input costs, policy changes, and processing constraints collide.
“It’s the perfect example of how fast things can change,” Chris says. “You can be in the black one day and upside down the next.”
Why Beef Demand Is Still So Strong
Despite volatility, consumer demand for beef remains one of agriculture’s brightest spots.
Chris breaks it down:
Americans are more focused on protein, fitness, and healthy aging.
The rise of GLP-1 drugs has ironically boosted demand for high-quality protein.
The beef industry’s genetics and grading improvements have created a product that’s more consistently tender, flavorful, and worth paying for.
“We don’t give enough credit to how good beef has gotten,” Chris explains. “People taste it and they want more.”
Corn, Soybeans & the Acreage Trap: Why Farmers Are Feeling Squeezed
If cattle feeders are anxious, crop farmers aren’t far behind.
Despite warnings, farmers planted 99 million acres of corn — one of the largest plantings in modern history.
But with:
Oversupply
Weak export demand
Brazil’s expanding acreage
China’s unreliable buying commitments
And minimal price rallies at harvest
…farmers are staring down breakeven at best.
“Farmers remember $8 corn,” Chris says. “But waiting for it again isn’t a strategy.”
He explains how crop insurance prices, revenue protection, and cost structures shape farmer decisions—and why some producers find themselves in year-after-year tight margins.
Brazil’s Rise & Why the U.S. Still Has Key Advantages
Brazil continues to dominate global headlines. Their cheap currency, endless acres, and rapid expansion make them a formidable competitor.
But Chris highlights where the U.S. still wins:
The Mississippi River system
Unmatched transportation infrastructure
High adoption of technology and precision ag tools
Crop insurance reliability and innovation
Diverse demand centers right in the Midwest (ethanol, feed, processing)
In Chris’s words: “Brazil has land. We have infrastructure.”
Diversification: The Not-So-Secret Advantage of Iowa Agriculture
One theme Chris returns to repeatedly is Iowa’s unique position.
Unlike regions that rely heavily on a single crop, Iowa benefits from:
Beef
Pork
Dairy
Poultry
Ethanol
Corn
Soybeans
This rich mix of demand centers stabilizes the state’s ag economy and keeps value in the region.
“A pig is corn and soybean meal on four legs,” Chris notes. “Livestock keeps the crop economy alive.”
Dairy, in particular, presents room for growth—especially as western states face water and regulatory limitations.
Looking Beyond China: Future Markets & Emerging Crops
While China continues to dominate export conversations, Chris argues that the U.S. must look forward:
India represents a massive untapped opportunity.
Smaller global markets are hungry for protein and grain.
New crops like pulses may open entirely new doors.
International relationships built today could define ag trade tomorrow.
Trade missions, sister-state relationships, and long-term diplomacy all matter more than ever.
Faith, Calling & the Return to What’s Real
The episode ends on a surprisingly personal and hope-filled note.
Chris shares how his career path—from Hillsdale College to D.C. to Iowa State to the Iowa Farm Bureau—has been shaped by Proverbs 3:5–6:
“Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding.
In all your ways acknowledge Him, and He will make straight your paths.”
He sees a cultural shift coming—a renewed desire for authenticity in a world increasingly dominated by AI, algorithms, and digital noise.
“I think people are going to come back to what’s real,” Chris says. “Faith, family, physical work, the land. Agriculture has a future because it’s real.”
Final Thoughts: A Tough Year with Reasons for Hope
This episode is a reminder that agriculture has always operated in cycles—but also in seasons of resilience.
Yes, margins are tight.
Yes, global competition is fierce.
Yes, volatility is real.
But the strengths of U.S. agriculture—its innovation, its diversity, its infrastructure, and its people—run deep.
And as Chris emphasizes, the path forward isn’t about predicting markets perfectly. It’s about faithfulness, diversification, smart risk management, and remaining open to new opportunities in a rapidly shifting world.
Connect with the Guest
Christopher Pudenz
Economist & Research Manager, Iowa Farm Bureau
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cpudenz
Iowa Farm Bureau: https://www.iowafarmbureau.com