Is Agriculture Stuck in a Commodity Cycle?

Corn goes up. Farmers invest. Equipment starts moving. Manufacturers ramp up production. Agribusiness feels optimistic again.

Then commodity prices fall, spending slows, manufacturers pull back, layoffs begin, and everyone waits for the market to turn around.

Eventually, it does.

And the cycle starts all over again.

In a recent episode of The Germinate Podcast, Joe Sampson sat down with Clayton Lind, founder of Atlas Media Group, along with Jeremy, to ask a question that agriculture may need to spend more time considering:

Are we too dependent on the corn and soybean commodity cycle?

The answer isn't as simple as planting something different. The system agriculture operates within today has been developing for generations.

How Did We Get Here?

Corn and soybeans didn't become dominant Midwestern crops overnight.

Clayton points to decades of changes in agriculture, including the Great Depression, the Dust Bowl, World War II, growing global demand, government policy, and eventually the farm crisis of the 1980s.

Over time, an entire ecosystem developed around producing these commodities.

The infrastructure exists. The equipment exists. The markets exist. Risk-management tools exist. And farmers know how to grow these crops incredibly well.

For many operations, corn and soybeans aren't simply the crops they've chosen to grow. They're the crops the surrounding system has been built to support. clayton-joe

That makes changing the system much harder than saying, "Why don't farmers grow something else?"

Farming Is a Business Built Around Managing Risk

Every farmer knows agriculture comes with risk.

Weather is unpredictable. Commodity markets move. Input costs fluctuate. Equipment breaks. Interest rates change. Global events can affect prices almost overnight.

When margins are already narrow, taking on even more uncertainty isn't particularly attractive.

That helps explain why corn and soybeans remain so important.

If a farmer decides to grow a different crop, there needs to be somewhere to sell it. There needs to be infrastructure to process it. There needs to be equipment available to grow and harvest it. Most importantly, there needs to be a realistic opportunity to make money doing it.

Clayton points to the excitement around new oat-processing capacity in Iowa as an example. Farmers may be capable of growing oats, but without a nearby market, taking that risk becomes much harder. clayton-joe

Diversification requires more than seeds in the ground.

It requires a system around them.

The Commodity Cycle Doesn't Stop at the Farm Gate

One of the most important parts of this conversation is that the corn and soybean cycle isn't only a farmer problem.

Think about everyone connected to those acres.

Equipment manufacturers. Seed companies. Chemical companies. Dealerships. Parts suppliers. Software companies. Banks. Transportation companies. AgTech startups.

When farmers have money to spend, much of that ecosystem benefits.

When margins tighten, the effects move through the entire industry.

Jeremy points out that the agricultural industry has experienced its own contraction alongside farmers, with companies throughout equipment, seed, crop protection, and technology responding when growers spend less. clayton-joe

That's what makes the cycle so significant.

A change in commodity prices can eventually become a hiring decision, an equipment purchase, a manufacturing slowdown, or a layoff hundreds of miles away from the field where the crop was grown.

What Happens When Prices Go Back Up?

This might be one of the most interesting questions Clayton raises.

Agriculture knows commodities are cyclical.

Prices rise.

Prices fall.

Yet when the market improves, it can become incredibly easy to behave as though the good times will continue indefinitely.

Companies hire again. Production increases. Farmers invest. Businesses expand.

Then another downturn arrives.

Clayton argues that stronger markets shouldn't only be viewed as an opportunity to sell more. They can also be an opportunity to prepare for the next downturn.

Instead of asking only, "How much can we grow while the market is good?"

Perhaps businesses should also ask:

"What can we build now that makes us less vulnerable when the market changes again?"

Diversification Doesn't Have to Mean Abandoning Corn and Soybeans

This conversation isn't an argument against corn or soybeans.

The United States is exceptionally good at producing both, and enormous industries have developed around them.

The bigger question is whether individual farms and businesses can create additional sources of value.

For one farmer, that might involve livestock.

For another, it might mean adding another crop.

For an agribusiness, it could mean developing a product for another market or investing in a different segment of the food system.

Clayton's point is not that there is one diversification strategy everyone should follow. It's that relying almost entirely on one or two economic levers leaves an operation vulnerable when those levers move in the wrong direction.

Instead of waiting for commodity prices to solve the problem, businesses can think about how to reduce their dependence on those prices in the first place.

There Are Bigger Questions Beyond Economics

The conversation also expands beyond profitability.

Joe, Clayton, and Jeremy discuss crop rotation, soil health, pest and disease pressure, chemical use, and water quality.

Jeremy explains that less diverse cropping systems can create more consistent conditions for certain pests and diseases, while additional crop rotations can help interrupt those cycles. At the same time, he pushes back on overly simplistic descriptions of what's happening in the soil and emphasizes that these are complicated systems without a single cause or solution. clayton-joe

That complexity is an important part of the larger conversation.

Agriculture doesn't need another debate where one side is entirely right and the other is entirely wrong.

It needs better questions.

What If the Opportunity Is Bigger Than Agriculture?

Clayton ends the conversation by zooming out.

Farmers and agribusiness professionals naturally spend a lot of time thinking about agriculture. But crops are only the beginning of a much larger food system.

After something leaves the farm, there is processing, transportation, distribution, manufacturing, restaurants, retail, and countless other businesses involved before food ultimately reaches a consumer.

Clayton's argument is simple: there is an enormous amount of economic activity happening beyond the farm gate.

That means the opportunity may not always be finding a way to grow more.

It might be finding a way to capture more value from what is already being grown.

For entrepreneurs and the next generation of agricultural leaders, that creates an entirely different question.

Instead of asking, "How do we get corn and soybean prices higher?"

Maybe we should also be asking:

"Where else can agriculture create value?"

The Cycle Doesn't Have to Define the Future

There isn't one solution to the challenges facing American agriculture.

There probably isn't even a short list of solutions.

The system is too interconnected for that.

But recognizing the cycle is a starting point.

Farmers can think about additional revenue opportunities. Agribusinesses can diversify their products and markets. Entrepreneurs can look further into the food supply chain. The industry can continue exploring new crops, new technologies, and new business models.

Corn and soybeans aren't going away.

The more important question is whether agriculture's success has to rise and fall with them.

Because if we already know another downturn will eventually come, perhaps the best time to prepare for it is before it arrives.

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